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China's GDP figures to be revised
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anthony_barker -
from yesterday's economist
GDP matters for great-power status. The bigger the economy, the bigger the military, the greater
the geopolitical clout: annual GDP estimates were first introduced in America in the 1940s as part
of its war effort... People should not mind, though. What matters for economic welfare is GDP per
person.
Also from an old economist (2001) from some scientist doing research on the world fish market:
In China, a catch of 5.5m tonnes was expected in 1999; but the official figure was 10.1m
tonnes.... When the pair replaced official statistics with estimates, the global catch showed a
wobbly downward trend... That the Chinese figures are unreliable is hardly surprising, since until
recently Chinese officials were promoted on the basis of production increases. What is surprising
is that such a distortion of global statistics might be possible.
That is not to say by 2050 China will not be the world's second largest economy - it will be, just
there is a tendency by government officials to make China appear more "glorious" than reality.
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Quest -
Quote:
That is not to say by 2050 China will not be the world's second largest economy - it will be, just
there is a tendency by government officials to make China appear more "glorious" than reality.
I think the skeptics now believe in the tendency of under reporting.
Quest -
The final growth figure for last year is 9.9%. China's GDP now stands at $2.25 trillion compared
to $1.67 trillion a year ago. US at $12.37 trillion, about 5.5x bigger.
US population (july2005): 295,734,134, China population (July2005): 1,306,313,812
US is 4.4x smaller.
US is 5.5 * 4.4 = 24.2 times better on average. China's richest 295,734,134, however, are probably
doing much better than US * 1/24.2
On average, China grew 9.6% per year for the last 26 years. That means its economy increased 2.5
times per decade.
If China continues to grow at 9.6% per year, it will still need log(24.2)/log(2.5) ~= 3.48 decades
to reach the current US per head level. But, if China ever catches up with the US per capita
level, its total economy will be 4.4x bigger, in today's perspective that would mean US $12.37
trillion vs China $54.43 trillion. dream on.....
gato -
Quote:
The final growth figure for last year is 9.9%. China's GDP now stands at $2.25 trillion compared
to $1.67 trillion a year ago.
A jump from 1.67 to 2.25 is a nearly 25% increase. Is there a mistake here?
Quest -
Quote:
A jump from 1.67 to 2.25 is a nearly 25% increase. Is there a mistake here?
I got the # from that site.
"With the economy now valued at $2.25 trillion (lb1.26 trillion), excluding inflation, the
announcement from the National Bureau of Statistics puts China marginally ahead of the UK, at
about $2.07 trillion, although the final order will depend on the exact figure for inflation
throughout the UK economy last year."
ala -
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack MacKelly
China's global trade exceeded $1 trillion ($1.15 trillion) in 2004, but if considered a single
unit, the European Union has the largest economy in the world with a GDP of 13,123,116 million USD
equivalent PPPs. The EU economy is expected to grow further over the next decade as more countries
join the union - especially considering that the new States are usually poorer than the EU
average, and hence the expected fast GDP growth will help achieve the dynamic of the united
Europe, but Europe is still divided by borders and politics. Chinese have the second largest in
the world when measured by purchasing power parity but measured in USD-exchange rate terms, it was
the 6th largest - however the most powerful economy is still the USA, the United States has the
largest and one of the most technologically advanced national economies in the world.
Hehe, your data is out of date already. China as of the end of 2005 is now the 4th largest economy
in the world (based on USD exchange rate) after United States, Japan and Germany.
ala -
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quest
I think excluding inflation is the keyword/s, yea I wasn't aware of that, so it's probably not
$2.25 yet.
Well, UK's current data doesn't include inflation either.
From the Financial Times:
"[China's] consumer price inflation was a moderate 1.8 per cent in 2005, down from 3.9 per cent in
2004."
Jose -
Quote:
Originally Posted by gato
A jump from 1.67 to 2.25 is a nearly 25% increase. Is there a mistake here?
That's the consequence of the revision of the official data I mentioned in the original post in
this thread. The GDP figure has turned out to be 20% higher than it was thought to be. That's
apart from the growth this year.
Reading the posts in this thread, I am surprised by the blind faith people seem to have in the
current exchange rates holding in the long term. All those calculations pointing that China needs
four decades of extremely strong growth to reach the US are based on the idea that the current
exchange rate of 8-odd yuan to the dollar will hold forever. That doesn't look likely. Most
analyses hint that the renminbi is undervalued, and the loss of global influence of the US coupled
with the huge American deficit can bring down the value of the US dollar at any moment. A dramatic
change in exchange rates would bridge the gap betwen China and the US (and Japan and the EU) in a
much shorter time.
Quest -
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
That is not to say by 2050 China will not be the world's second largest economy - it will be, just
there is a tendency by government officials to make China appear more "glorious" than reality.
I think the skeptics now believe in the tendency of under reporting.
I just ran across this article, thought I would link it here, just to substantiate my previous
post:
Quote:
Chinese economic data are notoriously unreliable, and some economists questioned whether the
figures understate real growth, given a nearly 30 percent surge in exports and strong domestic
spending. The 9.9 percent figure ''doesn't quite capture it," said Stephen Green, senior economist
at Standard Chartered Bank. ''One could say that 9.9 percent is a very convenient number; it's not
10 percent. Ten percent might scare people, and might create more trade friction with the US."
ala -
2005 will probably be revised to 10%+ in a couple of a months. Same thing happened for 2004.
Domestic part of the economy is doing well, this is good news for China.
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