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China's GDP figures to be revised
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Outofin -
Quote:
I sometimes get the feeling that people don't seem to think of themselves a belonging to a
semi-superpower.
I think the inconfidence comes from the feeling that China often finds itself in a difficult
diplomatic relations with other countries.
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bhchao -
Quote:
Did you happen to see this news today about China finding a huge natural gas deposit?
I do not find much of the information in a state-controlled newspaper reliable. Even if the
information reported in the China Daily was true, I doubt the finding would significantly decrease
China's reliance on imported oil; just like how drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
will not significantly decrease the US's reliance on imported oil.
Yet I support China being self-reliant on its own energy resources, just as I support the US to be
self-reliant in the same way. However it will take time before that really happens. For example
China recently signed a deal with Venezuela that will allow Chinese firms to co-develop oil fields
in Venezuela and open them to investment. It is a good strategy in my opinion, one that shows
Beijing's awareness of its vulnerability in the hands of the US in the event of a war. It also
shows China's ability to develop countermeasures to protect its economy in case of an energy
shutdown.
China is also drilling in the East China Sea, an area that is currently causing tensions with
And recently the US and China competed for oil resources in Kazakhstan, an oil-rich US ally where
Chevron and Exxon are currently drilling. Kazakhstan and China just inaugurated an oil pipeline
that will tranport oil from the region to Xinjiang.
Beijing is fearful that the American military presence in nearby Afghanistan will potentially
threaten oil supply from the region in the event of a war.
Outofin -
Although GDP is just a vague number, which could be very much unreliable, its meaning can’t be
underestimated. Let’s make some fun with GDP and /World/asia/...&tranMode=none
This would seem to make sense because the private sector now makes up at least 60% of GDP. Private
business people have a strong interest to understate income so as to avoid bribing parasitic
officials.
Also:
Quote:
The survey also confirms some long-held suspicions about China's economic make-up: that its
service sector is bigger than the one-third of GDP suggested by the old figures (the new data show
more than 40%), that consumption is also higher and that investment and savings as a proportion of
GDP are lower. This lot of figures look more sustainable than the old lot. But they are still only
a best guess at the truth. And, at a sixth the size of America's, China's economy still has a bit
of catching-up to do.
anthony_barker -
All countries have a grey economy - there is a quote as well from the economistl regarding china's
overreporting of production - in this case fish production. Official figures are still twice
actuals.
Quote:
After verifying that their model was able to predict the location of most high-catch regions of
the world, they went on to create a global map of the difference between expected (or modelled)
catches, and officially reported statistics. This revealed a shocking discrepancy. In China, a
catch of 5.5m tonnes was expected in 1999; but the official figure was 10.1m tonnes.
When the pair replaced official statistics with estimates, the global catch showed a wobbly
downward trend, shrinking by some 360,000 tonnes every year since 1988. And when they removed the
catches of a single, highly fluctuating species, the Peruvian anchoveta, the data revealed a
strong and consistent downturn, of 660,000 tonnes a year. In other words, contrary to official
figures suggesting that the marine catch has been slowly growing for the past few years, it has in
fact been in decline.
That the Chinese figures are unreliable is hardly surprising, since until recently Chinese
officials were promoted on the basis of production increases. What is surprising is that such a
distortion of global statistics might be possible. The FAO offers several defences. One is that
these new findings, published in this week's Nature, are based on modelling, which does not prove
anything. The suggestion that China might be cooking the books is not new. The FAO says it has
been suspicious of the Chinese figures for the past six years.
Jack MacKelly -
China's global trade exceeded $1 trillion ($1.15 trillion) in 2004, but if considered a single
unit, the European Union has the largest economy in the world with a GDP of 13,123,116 million USD
equivalent PPPs. The EU economy is expected to grow further over the next decade as more countries
join the union - especially considering that the new States are usually poorer than the EU
average, and hence the expected fast GDP growth will help achieve the dynamic of the united
Europe, but Europe is still divided by borders and politics. Chinese have the second largest in
the world when measured by purchasing power parity but measured in USD-exchange rate terms, it was
the 6th largest - however the most powerful economy is still the USA, the United States has the
largest and one of the most technologically advanced national economies in the world.
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